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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still