A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
