Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
